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North Carolinians are divided on the strength of American democracy, but an overall shift from January to March is the result of a substantial swings in partisan attitudes towards the health of the nation’s democracy, according to a Catawba College-YouGov Survey.
In January 2025, North Carolinians reported being 32% pessimistic about the strength of American democracy, while 27% were optimistic; 41% were neutral. In March, North Carolinians were almost evenly divided among the three categories: 35% neutral, 35% optimistic, and 30% pessimistic.
Since the inauguration of President Donald Trump, changes are evident in how North Carolina partisans view the health of the country’s democracy.
In January’s survey, self-identified Democrats in North Carolina were 32% optimistic to 31% pessimistic, with 36% neutral. Two months later, pessimism among Democrats was at 45% —a clear plurality —while optimism dropped to 24%. Neutral feelings about American democracy dropped slightly to 31% among Democrats.
Among self-identified Republicans, they too were evenly divided between pessimism and optimism in January: 31% to 30%, respectively, with 39% neutral. However, with their party controlling the national government, 56% of Republicans in March rated American democracy optimistically, while only 8% were pessimistic. Neutral responses among Republicans were slightly lower than in January, down to 36%.
“The health and perception of American democracy is crucial to our self-governing system,” said Dr. Michael Bitzer, professor of politics and history and director of the Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service, which commissioned the YouGov poll. “If you simply look at the percentages at the most extreme responses — zero for ‘American democracy has failed’ versus 10 for ‘American democracy is the strongest it has ever been’ — you’ll find fundamental shifts in how partisans view our civic health. Democrats went from 7% in January saying a zero, that American democracy has failed, to now 14%.”
“Conversely, Republicans who gave American democracy a ten went from 4% in January to 10% in March,” Bitzer said. “There was also a significant shift to more optimistic responses among Republicans from their January responses. Yet again, partisanship seems to be dictating how Americans view the health of their democracy.”
The March poll, conducted by YouGov from March 10 to March 20, has a margin of error (adjusted for weights) of +/- 3.6% for the 1,000 weighted respondents, with larger margins of error among sub-groups. The January 2025 poll, which was co-sponsored by Western Carolina University’s Haire Institute for Public Policy, was conducted Jan. 7-30 and has a margin of error (adjusted for weights) of +/- 3.08%. “Optimistic” were those responses from 7-10 grouped together; “neutral” was 4-6 grouped; and “pessimistic” where those responses from 0-3 grouped. All results should be interpreted as informative and not determinative.
North Carolinians more optimistic about state of democracy within the state, their local communities
In addition, the March 2025 poll expanded questions to North Carolinians on the strength of democracy within the state and their local communities.
Among all North Carolinians, 32% were optimistic regarding the state of democracy in North Carolina, while 20% were pessimistic; nearly half (48%) were neutral. Like the state of American democracy, however, partisan differences are apparent.
Among self-identifying Republicans, 43% were optimistic about democracy in North Carolina, with 45% neutral and only 12% pessimistic. Among self-identified Democrats, only a third — 32% — were optimistic, while a quarter — 24% — were pessimistic. Forty-six percent were neutral.
Among self-identifying independents, a majority — 52% — were neutral, while 26% were optimistic and 22% pessimistic.
When asked about the strength of democracy within their local communities, 35% were optimistic compared to 15% pessimistic, while nearly half — 49% — were neutral. Democrats were slightly more optimistic about their local democracy than for the state, at 38%, while only 15% were pessimistic. Republicans had the highest level of optimism at 44%, nearly matching the 45% who were neutral and well above the 11% who were pessimistic.
Independents, however, were decidedly neutral on the state of democracy in their localities: 54% were neutral, while 27% were optimistic, and 19% were pessimistic.
“While a solid third of North Carolinians held optimistic views of the state of democracy at the national, state and local levels, significant levels were ‘neutral’ about their views on the strength of democracy at the state and local levels,” Bitzer said.
He added, “in our democratic republic, all three levels of government — national, state, and local — are critical components to how Americans engage in self-governance. And while fewer North Carolinians are pessimistic regarding the governing levels closest to citizens, significant neutral feelings about democracy aren’t a healthy component for the future.”
Beyond Partisanship, demographics show distinct differences in North Carolinians’ views of democracy’s strengths
Beyond the partisan views of the America’s civic health, various demographics show distinctive differences when it comes to the national, state, and local levels and the strength of democracy in each.
Within the racial-ethnic data of North Carolina respondents, Black North Carolinians were most pessimistic (39 percent) about the strength of democracy at the national level, while White North Carolinians were either neutral (37%) or optimistic (36%). Conversely, at the state level, Blacks were the most optimistic (at 36%), while Whites were the most neutral (at 50%).
Among the income categories, those making $100,000 or more were the most optimistic at all three levels: 39% at the national, 38% at the state and 42% at the local level. This was also true across the generational cohorts, with the Silent and Boomer generations (combined) having the highest optimism percentages of the three cohorts: 40% at the national, 36% for North Carolina, and 42% at the local level.
Gender demonstrates gaps between men and women: regarding the strength of the national democracy, men were 43 percent optimistic while women were 37% pessimistic. Among those with a 4-year college education, 37% of them were pessimistic (a plurality), while 39% of non-college graduates were neutral about the state of the nation’s democracy. Only at the local level did a significant plurality — 41% — of college educated express optimism.
Methodology for January and March 2025 polls: The March 2025 poll was paid for by the Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service at Catawba College and conducted online by YouGov.
The March poll interviewed 1,129 North Carolina respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 1,000 to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, and education. The sampling frame is a politically representative “modeled frame” of North Carolina adults, based upon the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata file, public voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the 2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll, and the 2020 CES surveys, including demographics and 2020 presidential vote.
The January 2025 poll, which was co-sponsored and paid for by Catawba’s NC Politics Center and Western Carolina University’s Haire Institute for Public Policy, interviewed 1,564 North Carolina respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 1,500 to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, and education. The sampling frame is a politically representative “modeled frame” of North Carolina adults, based upon the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata file, public voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the 2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll, and the 2020 CES surveys, including demographics and 2020 presidential vote.
Both polls’ matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined, and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, and years of education. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles. The weights were then post-stratified on 2020/2024 presidential vote choice, 2024 governor vote choice, as well as a four-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), race (4-categories), and education (4-categories), to produce the final weight.